VENEZUELA - Government Stability
7 March 2016 12:31 EST > > > > VENEZUELA - Government Stability > > > > Short-term trajectory: NEGATIVE Long-term > > trajectory: NEGATIVE > > > > > > > > Maduro’s ability to survive 2016 will depend on the > > extent of social unrest > > > > > > > > • The government will use the Supreme > > Court and Electoral Council to try to obstruct opposition > > efforts to force regime change this year, because chavismo > > can replace Maduro with his vice president in 2017 without > > calling new elections. > > > > > > > > • However, a surge of social unrest in > > 2016 would persuade key players to negotiate an exit > > strategy, forcing a disorderly political transition. > > > > > > > > • The scale of the necessary economic > > adjustment and associated political ...